March 2026 War in Iran - The Impact on Irish Electricity and Gas Prices

30-Second Overview

Wholesale electricity prices in Ireland rose by 53% in the first week of March 2026, reflecting an immediate market reaction to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Prices reversed sharply over the remainder of the month, and by early April had largely returned to pre-escalation levels, highlighting how quickly price volatility unwinds once supply concerns ease.

Despite this normalisation, energy markets remain structurally sensitive to both geopolitical developments and seasonal demand cycles. Two key variables will determine whether prices remain stable or reprice higher later in the year: the stability of supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and European natural gas storage levels heading into winter 2026/2027.

Utilityfair is Ireland’s largest commercial energy procurement specialist and independent advisor to over 20,000 businesses, tracking wholesale and supplier pricing across the Irish market daily. This provides a consistent view of how short-term geopolitical volatility translates into longer-term pricing trends affecting Irish business energy costs.

⚡To receive advice on how to manage the current price volatility, upload a recent electricity bill using the link below. You'll receive a free, detailed price comparison showing you the best rates across all suppliers side-by-side, in minutes 👇 

Electricity Prices and Business Cost Exposure

In April 2026, Irish wholesale electricity prices averaged €122.69 per MWh (12.2 c/kWh), down 5% month-on-month, but still 11% higher than April 2025. Despite recent volatility, prices remain below November 2025 levels and are currently trending downward.

This behaviour is consistent with historical patterns. During Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, wholesale electricity prices rose by 98% between June and August, before falling by 63% within two months as markets adjusted.

For businesses, the key issue is how this translates into actual costs. Approximately 50% of a commercial electricity bill is made up of grid fees and regulatory charges, insulating this portion from wholesale price movements. Of the remaining share, a significant proportion of electricity generation in Ireland comes from renewables, such as wind.

As a result, only around 25% of a commercial electricity bill is directly exposed to energy commodity prices, primarily natural gas.

Electricity prices are therefore indirectly linked to gas markets, but exposure to global supply disruptions remains limited. Only around 3% of the global gas supply is transported via liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The majority of gas is delivered via pipeline infrastructure directly from producing regions.

This means that electricity markets are less directly exposed to this disruption than oil-based fuels such as petrol, diesel and heating oil, where price impacts are more immediate and severe. In practical terms, this significantly limits the impact of short-term wholesale volatility on business electricity bills.

Natural Gas Prices: Market Drivers and Forward Risk

In April 2026, wholesale gas prices averaged 121.92 pence per therm, with the EU benchmark TTF trading at approximately €42.7 per MWh (4.3 c/kWh). Prices have eased from March highs, reflecting a partial unwind in geopolitical risk premiums as market concerns eased.

While natural gas prices for near-term delivery have increased due to supply disruption, the 12-month average forward price is less alarming. When businesses enter fixed-term contracts, they are effectively exposed to the average forward curve over the contract period. As a result, commercial gas users renewing contracts today are currently facing an estimated 8% to 10% increase compared to this time last year, reflecting the underlying trajectory of forward pricing rather than short-term spot volatility.

Looking ahead, the key risk driver is not geopolitical headlines, but European gas storage levels ahead of the winter heating season. If storage levels remain below historical norms as demand peaks, markets could begin pricing in renewed upward pressure across the forward curve.

At present, forward prices continue to reflect a broadly well-supplied market, suggesting that recent volatility has not yet translated into sustained long-term pricing stress.

What Should Businesses Do During Energy Market Volatility?

The correct response to short-term energy market volatility depends primarily on a business’s current contract position rather than headline market movements. Businesses should avoid rushed decisions during market volatility.

• For businesses with several months remaining on a fixed-price contract, there is no immediate exposure to wholesale price fluctuations.
• Where contracts are approaching expiry, early review is important to avoid exposure to out-of-contract rates. However, procurement decisions should be based on structured market assessment rather than short-term price movements.
• Businesses should also consider the full range of procurement options available, including fixed-price contracts, shorter-term arrangements, and wholesale-linked or tracker-based products, depending on risk appetite and budget certainty requirements.

Utilityfair supports over 20,000 Irish businesses by providing independent side-by-side comparisons of all major electricity and gas suppliers. This allows businesses to assess available pricing and contract options based on current market conditions, without reliance on a single supplier.

To request a full comparison of available electricity and gas tariffs in the Irish market, businesses can submit a recent bill for review by clicking the button below.